In a world shaped by industrial transformation, geopolitical tension, and technological disruption, copper is emerging as an essential metal for sustaining the new global economic order. But amid this shift, one question looms large: to what extent can new demand drivers — such as artificial intelligence and data centers — truly replace the traditional ones?
By Panorama Minero
That was the central theme of one of the most insightful panels at the World Copper Conference 2025, held this week in Santiago, Chile. Titled “Will the Next Generation of Demand Drivers Displace the Old?”, the session brought together five leading experts to analyze the current state and future trajectory of copper demand. Their conclusions were both revealing and far-reaching.
Geopolitics and Demand: The Shadow of Trade Wars
Henry Van, Head of Industrial Metals Analysis at Trafigura, did not mince words: rising trade tensions between the United States and China could have a severe impact on global copper demand.
“Over 10% of the world’s manufactured goods end up in the U.S., and every single one of them contains copper — whether you see it or not. iPhones, routers, appliances. If the proposed tariffs go into effect, copper demand could contract sharply,” Van warned.
He explained that, unlike food or energy — whose consumption remains relatively steady even amid price shocks — copper demand is closely tied to durable goods, making it far more vulnerable. “No one needs to buy a new air conditioner today if it costs twice as much as it did six months ago,” he pointed out.
China: Renewable Slowdown or Strategic Adjustment?
Angela Bi, Head of Asian Metals & Mineral Research at Mercuria, offered an insider’s view from China. While acknowledging the recent slowdown in renewable energy installations, she argued that it reflects a strategic transition to a more stable, system-wide growth phase.
“China is not abandoning renewables. On the contrary, we are seeing increased investment in power grid infrastructure — that’s the real bottleneck,” she explained. “Energy security is also rising on the national agenda, pushing interest toward domestic sources like solar and wind.”
Bi was clear: China will continue expanding its renewable energy capacity, albeit at a more sustainable pace — around 300 GW per year for the next five years — which will continue to fuel copper demand, especially as it links with distributed energy storage solutions.
A Structural View: Technology, History, and Strategy
Shaun Usmar, CEO of Vale Base Metals, brought historical and strategic depth to the discussion. “We are underestimating the pace of technology adoption. Just like with mobile phones — McKinsey predicted 500,000 users by 2000, but the actual number was 109 million. Now, we’re underestimating AI’s impact, which will require a massive data center infrastructure — and a lot of copper.”
He illustrated how moments like AlphaGo’s victory over a human grandmaster in 2016 triggered a wave of billion-dollar AI investments across Asia. “This is not just about the energy transition. It’s a race for technological supremacy — and copper is a bottleneck,” he concluded.
Diversification as a Buffer
Laura Whitton, Global Commodity Strategist for Copper & Potash at BHP, arguably delivered the panel’s most structured vision. For her, copper demand rests on three main pillars: traditional consumption, the green transition, and digitalization.
“For copper to become irrelevant, we’d have to stop using technology — and that simply won’t happen,” she said. “Add to that the fact that countries like India are only beginning their mass electrification process. That guarantees a solid demand floor for decades.”
Whitton backed her argument with data: China’s per capita copper stock is still only half that of developed economies, while India’s electricity consumption per capita is just one-seventh that of Japan. “This expansion has only just begun,” she noted.
She also emphasized copper’s diverse range of applications: even if sectors like EVs were to slow down, copper remains essential in everything from power plugs and cooling systems to smart grids and microchips.
Copper at the Center of the New Global Economy
The panel made one thing abundantly clear: copper is no longer just an industrial input — it is a critical infrastructure metal for the future economy. From iPhones to AI algorithms, from solar farms to India’s post-fossil transition, copper’s relevance grows every day.
And while there are significant risk factors — tariffs, economic disarray, technological disruptions — the panel’s consensus was strong: new demand drivers will not displace the old ones — they will amplify them. That synergy is precisely what makes copper such a powerful commodity in today’s evolving world.
